Cory Raven | 604-220-9399

 

Threat of global recession to hinder home sales

 in major Canadian housing markets

 

Recovery linked to economic stability next year

 

Global economic uncertainty weighed heavily on residential real estate activity in most major Canadian centres during the latter half of 2008.  Although the forecast for 2009 promises more of the same, most markets are expected to weather the storm, says RE/MAX. 

 

Housing market performance will clearly be contingent on economic performance at a local, provincial, and national level in 2009.  Issues affecting the overall economy are impacting housing markets across the country and the situation is not expected to be remedied until consumer confidence is restored.   If inventory levels remain stable, pent-up demand kicks into gear, and lower interest rates stimulate home-buying activity, we could see a bounce back as early as spring.

 

The RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook for 2009 examined residential real estate trends in 22 markets across the country and found that average price held up remarkably well in 2008, despite 13 centres reporting double-digit declines in home sales. Solid gains earlier in the year likely served to prop-up housing values at year-end.  The prognosis for housing activity in the first six to nine months of 2009 is somewhat static, given continued volatility in financial markets and the threat of recession, but as stability returns, housing markets are expected to recover. 

 

Nationally, 440,000 homes are expected to change hands in 2008, down 15 per cent from record 2007 levels. Canadian housing values are expected to hover at $300,000, a nominal three per cent decline from last year’s historic peak.  By year-end 2009, unit sales should match 2008 levels, while average price is forecast to fall another two per cent to $293,000.

 

Major markets are evenly split in terms of housing performance in 2009, with 11 centres forecast to match or exceed 2008 home sales and 11 expected to slide from 2008 levels.  The highest percentage increase in unit sales is anticipated in Saskatoon, where the number of homes sold is forecast to climb three per cent in 2009.  Housing values are expected to hold the line in 2009, with St. John’s, Montreal, Kingston, London, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, and Regina posting modest gains in average price in 2009. 

 

-          more –


-           

                                                                        RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook 2009…2

 

Canada’s real estate environment is considerably more complex than it has been in recent years.  The landscape is definitely changing -- with most markets shifting into either balanced or buyer’s territory. The shut out is over.  Sellers no longer rule the roost.  Opportunities exist for purchasers like never before, including lower interest rates, greater inventory levels, the luxury of time to make decisions, and the upper-hand at the negotiating table.  Motivated vendors will need to take note of the new mindset and set their prices accordingly.

 

Canadian sellers are slowly adjusting to new realities. For most markets, 2008 started in balanced territory and moved into buyer’s market conditions during the latter half of 2008.  The year ahead will prove challenging, especially for vendors.

 

While the economy will dictate real estate performance next year, it’s important to remember that demand still exists in the marketplace.  In the midst of stock market turmoil, sold signs continue to appear on lawns across the country.  With affordable lending rates and increased selection, first-time and move-up buyers with good credit may choose to play their investment strategy safe and purchase a home. The comfort of a tangible investment like real estate goes a long way in tough times.

 

###

 

RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998) Inc. Housing Market Outlook 2009 Report, issued

December 3, 2008.

 


 

 

 

Residential Unit Sales by Market 2004-2009

 

 

 

Market

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008*

%

2009**

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

British Columbia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vancouver

37,972

42,222

36,479

38,978

26,000

-33

26,000

0

Victoria

7,685

7,970

7,500

8,403

6,500

-23

5,800

-11

Kelowna

5,153

6,070

5,459

6,192

3,900

-37

3,510

-10

Alberta

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edmonton

17,652

18,634

21,984

20,427

18,900

-8

18,900

0

Calgary

26,511

31,569

33,027

32,176

22,500

-30

23,000

2

Saskatchewan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regina

2,785

2,730

2,953

3,957

3,450

-13

3,450

0

Saskatoon

2,999

3,246

3,430

4,446

3,600

-19

3,700

3

Manitoba

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Winnipeg***

11,447

12,087

12,304

13,079

12,900

-1

12,900

0

Ontario

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hamilton-Burlington

13,176

13,565

13,059

13,866

12,200

-12

11,500

-6

Kitchener-Waterloo

5,931

6,147

6,115

7,031

6,600

-6

6,000

-9

London-St. Thomas

9,238

9,133

9,234

9,686

9,000

-7

9,000

0

Ottawa

13,158

13,099

13,783

14,579

13,900

-5

13,500

-3

Sudbury

2,180

2,477

2,519

2,632

2,400

-9

2,400

0

Toronto

83,501

84,145

83,084

93,193

79,000

-15

75,000

-5

Barrie and District

4,657

4,675

4,397

5,017

4,250

-15

4,250

0

St. Catharines

3,130

3,217

3,214

3,258

2,900

-11

2,900

0

Kingston

3,764

3,464

3,517

3,725

3,550

-5

3,550

0

Quebec

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Montreal

48,564

49,506

50,106

56,151

48,000

-14

43,000

-11

New Brunswick

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saint John

1,612

1,901

1,852

2,253

2,250

0

2,200

-2

Nova Scotia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Halifax-Dartmouth

5,516

6,698

6,462

7,261

6,500

-10

6,300

-3

PEI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Charlottetown

1,500

1,449

1,492

1,769

1,450

-18

1,400

-4

Newfoundland and Labrador

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

St. John's

3,203

3,211

3,537

4,471

4,950

11

4,700

-5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NATIONAL

460,790

483,789

484,027

520,747

440,000

-15

440,000

0

* Estimate    **Forecast    ***Total MLS

 

 

 

Source: CREA, OMREB, TREB, WREB,Sudbury Real Estate Board, Ottawa Real Estate Board, RE/MAX

 

 

 

Post CommentComments: 0Read Full Story
Categories:  | Bentall | Blog | Buyer's Market | Cameron Mcneill | Central BN, Burnaby North Real Estate | Central Pt Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam | Clayton, Cloverdale | Coal Harbour | Coal Harbour, Vancouver West | condos | Cory Raven | Downtown NW | Downtown NW, New Westminster | Downtown VW | Downtown VW, Vancouver West | Downtown VW, Vancouver West Real Estate | Fairview VW, Vancouver West | False Creek North | False Creek North, Vancouver West | False Creek, Vancouver West | False Creek, Vancouver West Real Estate | Guildford, North Surrey Real Estate | Hamilton RI, Richmond | Hamilton, North Vancouver | Highgate, Burnaby South | Highgate, Burnaby South Real Estate | King George Corridor, South Surrey White Rock | King George Corridor, South Surrey White Rock Real Estate | Kits | Kitsilano | Lower Lonsdale, North Vancouver | MAC | MAC Marketing Solutions | Main, Vancouver East | Market Trendz | Market Trendzs | Market TrendzsPanorama Ridge | Marpole | Marpole, Vancouver West | Mortgage | Mortgage Rates | Mount Pleasant VW | Mount Pleasant VW, Vancouver West | New Westminster | Panorama Ridge, Surrey Real Estate | Prime Property | Queensborough | Queensborough, New Westminster Real Estate | Raven's Real Deal | Raven's Real Deals | Re | Real Deal | Real Estate | Rennie Marketing | Sunshine Hills Woods, N. Delta Real Estate | Surrey Real Estate | TAC real estate | Technology | Twitter | Vancouver | Vancouver Bubble? | Vancouver listings | Vancouver Real Estate | Vancouver West | Vancouver West Real Estate | West End VW | West End VW, Vancouver West | West End VW, Vancouver West Real Estate | Westend
Please excuse the mess while I upgrade my website.  In the meantime, you may access all my blog posts by clicking here.
Please excuse the mess while I upgrade my website to provide you with even more timely and topical information on our market and the process of buying and selling.  In the meantime, you can access my blog by clicking here
Cory Raven
Telephone:604-220-9399
Cory Raven - Managing Broker
RE/MAX Select Realty
4806 Main Street
Vancouver, BC
V5V 3R8